H1N1 Flu: Letter from David and Orly Perez

In the few days that have passed since we wrote this letter below, we are relieved to hear that the H1N1 Flu may be less potent than first feared:http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=1033298

Dear Family and Friends,

This is much more serious than we may all imagine. Today, April 29 2009 the County of San Diego declared a Health State of Emergency, this will help get needed medication here faster as a result.

The WHO has its pandemic alert at Stage 5, having raised it from phase 4 yesterday. Phase 5 is means that it is a substantial pandemic risk. Stage 6 is a is the final stage, a pandemic — a global epidemic of a new and deadly disease. You all need to understand that we went from Stage 1 to Stage 5 in less than one week. The Bird flu in 2005 only reached Stage 3 after 6 months.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090429/ts_nm/us_flu_133

According to WHO in 6 years the Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO was 421 cases with  257 deaths (about >60%) see link below:

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2009_04_23/en/index.html

As of this morning Mexico’s Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said there are a suspected 2,500 cases of swine flu, and 1,300 of those have been hospitalized and about 159 deaths in Mexico alone. Another,  186 suspected and 66 confirmed in the USA with a first known death in Texas this morning.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak

Since the common Flu kills between 250,000 to 500,000 people every year worldwide and in the US alone there was 36,00 deaths attributed to flu with over 220,000 hospitalized each year.

We really can’t get an accurate number on the swine flu until all the tests come back from the labs and are then reported to the State/CDC/WHO — we all know that can take weeks and at times months. I believe the numbers are extremely underestimated in order to not cause a panic, and to keep some supplies of Tamiflu available.

So my advice to my dear friends and family is to take this very seriously as if it were a stage 6 pandemic and try and stay away from public places and limit your travel and stay close to home. 

Its better to be safe than sorry. In the event that President Obama declares the USA in a State of Emergency (like CA) then you can expect all of our borders sealed off and no air travel permitted whatsoever. I am hoping this won’t happen, but based on the numbers and the rapid pace of infection (compared to the Bird Flu and SARS) it might be a possibility. 

I suggest everyone get a Twitter account  for two reasons:
To communicate with all of family and friends in case of a State of Emergency and to subscribe to the 3 following: 1) CDCemergency 2) whonews  3) BarackObama 

With Twitter it does not matter what computer or IM client they have its universal.

Also, make sure your cell phones are charged and you have plenty of bottled water (at least a 90 day supply and canned foods at home).

If anyone has any comments or feedback please post comments to this blog. Orly and I want to make sure that everyone is safe. Feel free to forward, cut and paste any part or all of this email to anyone.

All our best and God Bless, 

 

David and Orly Perez
Www.2life18.org

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Relevant Links and More Information:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/swineflu/news/apr2809briefings.html

 Apr 28, 2009 (CIDRAP News) – As the official count of US swine influenza cases rose to 64 today, top federal health officials said it’s becoming increasingly clear that the virus is spreading beyond people who recently traveled to Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak.

“The information we’re seeing from states and locals . . . is that this appears to be acting like a normal flu virus, which has a fairly high rate of transmission in families,” Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said at a news briefing this afternoon. He said investigators are finding respiratory and flu-like illnesses in family members of case-patients. 

http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090429/ts_nm/us_flu_101

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/deadly-strain-of-flu-arrives-in-britain-1675172.html

http://www.ktsm.com/news/tamiflu-shortage-expected

Tamiflu is now sold-out in most pharmacies across CA –make sure you get yours from a licensed pharmacy and not online where many are counterfeits and people are being charged over $100 for sugar pills. If you have problems please let me know and I’ll try and help you secure some.
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The World Health Organization (WHO) has a scale it uses to describe infectious disease risk, much like the Saffir/Simpson scale we all know so well for tropical cyclones and hurricanes.

Stages of a Pandemic

Interpandemic period

Phase 1: No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. An influenza virus subtype that has caused human infection may be present in animals. If present in animals, the risk of human infection or disease is considered to be low.

Phase 2: No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. However, a circulating animal influenza virus subtype poses a substantial risk of human disease.

Pandemic alert period

Phase 3: Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.

Phase 4: Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans.

Phase 5: Larger cluster(s) but human-to-human spread still localized, suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans, but may not yet be fully transmissible (substantial pandemic risk).

Pandemic period

Phase 6: Pandemic: increased and sustained transmission in general population.

What You Can Do to Stay Healthy

There are everyday actions people can take to stay healthy.

    * Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.
    * Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hands cleaners are also effective.
    * Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread that way.

Try to avoid close contact with sick people.

    * Influenza is thought to spread mainly person-to-person through coughing or sneezing of infected people.
    * If you get sick, CDC recommends that you stay home from work or school and limit contact with others to keep from infecting them.

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